
Elementor #34549
Assessing the climate impact of donations: between modelling and uncertainty At Mieux Donner, we sometimes use a calculation that is strikingly simple: “€1 = 1
Saturday 28th September 2024, Reading time: 10 mins
We live in a time of great uncertainty. Humanity is facing ever-increasing risks that threaten our future, including wars between major powers and even nuclear wars, natural and man-made pandemics, threats from advanced artificial intelligence (AI), and risks from new military technologies. These global catastrophic risks have the potential to kill billions of people and put the future of humanity at risk.
In partnership with Effektiv Spenden, we now offer our donors the opportunity to donate to the “Safeguarding the Future Fund.” This fund channels donations toward the most promising initiatives aimed at reducing the greatest existential risks to humanity. It focuses on addressing threats to humanity’s long-term future while also supporting actions that protect people living today.
Effektiv Spenden allocates donations from its fund every six months. The charities that the fund supports are high-impact, underfunded initiatives aimed at reducing the likelihood of global disasters and mitigating their effects.
In 2023, almost 900 donors donated 1.6m euros to the Safeguarding the Future Fund. These donations were allocated to several high impact organisations. These organisations are chosen every 6 months to ensure that the highest impact opportunities are being well funded.
For concrete examples of the important work these organisations are doing, let’s look at how donations from the ‘Safeguarding the Future Fund’ were allocated to three organisations in 2023.
These impactful initiatives rely on generous support from donors, underscoring the importance of contributions in fostering informed, strategic responses to global crises and promoting peace. Your donation can help sustain this critical work for a more secure future:
Received CHF 100,000 from the Safeguarding the Future Fund in 2023
Pour Demain fosters meaningful dialogues between science, politics, and civil society to address critical yet often overlooked issues, such as pandemic prevention and artificial intelligence.
Engagement strategies include:
Policy Advocacy: Pour Demain actively engages with policymakers to translate its recommendations into actionable strategies for the public good.
Media Outreach: The organization shares its findings through leading media outlets to enhance public awareness and understanding of pressing issues.
Expert Workshops: It organizes workshops with specialists to refine recommendations, foster interdisciplinary collaboration, and deepen research insights.
Public Events: Through hosting and participating in public events, Pour Demain aims to engage the wider community, sparking dialogue and encouraging collective action.
By employing these diverse channels, Pour Demain ensures that its research and recommendations reach a wide audience, fostering informed discussions and effective solutions to some of today’s most pressing challenges.
Received 115,000 euros from the Safeguarding the Future Fund in 2023
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a global think tank focused on international affairs. It conducts in-depth research and analysis on a variety of issues, including international security, political economy, and global governance. The organization aims to promote peace through informed policy recommendations and public engagement. It has centers around the world, facilitating dialogue and collaboration among scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to address pressing global challenges.
Carnegie experts are at the forefront of guiding policymakers in navigating the complex challenges posed by deteriorating relations with Russia. Their insights, such as those from Andrew S. Weiss and Eugene Rumer, who recently emphasized the need for a pragmatic approach to Russia in a lengthy article in the Wall Street Journal, have sparked vital global discussions and received acclaim from U.S. and EU officials.
Projects such as “Right-Sizing the Russia Challenge” aim to equip U.S. leaders with strategies for the upcoming government transition in 2025. Similarly, Kofman and Massicot are providing crucial briefings on military strategies to support Ukraine, drawing from direct experience on the ground.
The Berlin team is enhancing understanding of Russia’s internal dynamics, with Andrei Kolesnikov’s research shedding light on shifting public sentiments amid the ongoing conflict.
Received 128,000 euros from the Safeguarding the Future Fund in 2023
METR is a research nonprofit that works on assessing whether cutting-edge AI systems could pose catastrophic risks to society. METR stands for “Model Evaluation & Threat Research” and is a reference to metrology – the science of measurement and its application. They build the science of accurately assessing risks, so that humanity is informed before developing transformative AI systems.
The team at ARC Evals has conducted independent evaluations of GPT-4 (in collaboration with OpenAI) and Claude (in collaboration with Anthropic).
The ideas developed by the organization were presented in the US Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence (“Regulation on the safe and trustworthy development and use of artificial intelligence”).
The work of the organization was also highlighted by the former President of the USA, Barack Obama.
Allocation of funds in March 2024:
Blueprint Biosecurity – work plans – “blueprints” – for the prevention, mitigation and control of future pandemics (approx. €150,000)
Pour Demain – Support for the Biosecurity Program (CHF 100,000)
Allocation of funds in August 2023:
METR (formerly ARC Evals) – Evaluation of state-of-the-art AI systems to identify and minimize risks (€128,000)
Allocation of funds in February 2023:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ( CEIP ) – The global risks arising from the Ukraine war (115,000 €)
Center for a New American Security ( CNAS ) – Workshop on the risks of autonomous weapons systems ($100,000)
Jennifer is co-founder and co-director of Mieux Donner. You can contact her at jennifer@mieuxdonner.org or by writing on the contact form.

Assessing the climate impact of donations: between modelling and uncertainty At Mieux Donner, we sometimes use a calculation that is strikingly simple: “€1 = 1

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